Stock is one of the favorite investments that investors hold. Though it is the favorite investment of many investors, there is no guarantee for a profit from the stock market. In fact, quite a lot of them have lost money, especially in year 2000 to 2002. The biggest difference between investment and gambling can be the existence of a strategy. Unluckily, the most popular strategy in 2000 to 2002 named as “buy and hold” did not work for such market.

This “buy and hold” strategy failed because it is really not a good strategy. Actually, it seems that there is no strategy at all. There are both safe and dangerous times in the stock market history. Unfortunately, we are in the dangerous time nowadays. Therefore, a simple “buy and hold” strategy is not going to work.

In order to make a profit in an unstable and unfavorable financial market, we need to know the purpose and target of our investment. We do not aim at anticipating the market trend, but give a frame to ourselves. With this frame, we will not buy and hold stocks thoughtlessly. Instead, we follow a model in discipline when determining the buying and holding of stocks.

In this model, there are three factors that determine your decisions including market price, Federal Reserve Bank and market trend. When all the factors are favorable to you (around 26% of time from 1927), it is a good time to purchase. If two of the factors are favorable to your (around 50% of time), you are likely to have an annual return of 10.7%. If all the factors are unfavorable to you, you are likely to have an annual loss of 9.7%.

Whether the price is high or low is determined by PE ratio. With reference to the past 75 years, when average PE ratio is above 17, the market price is considered as high. Federal Reserve Bank plays an important role in interest rate. The financial market is less favorable when federal fund rate increases.

The three combinations of the three factors give you good signals on whether you should buy, hold and sell your stocks. Stocks should be sold when the average PE ratio is higher than 17, interest rate is high or increasing and the market is going upward. Stocks should be bought when the average PE ratio is lower than 17, interest rate is low or decreasing and the market is going downward.

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