We see a new automated forex trading system just about every week now, it seems. They all show profitable results in the tests they show but when it comes to live testing the results can be very different, as all of us know from bitter experience.

So why do the dreams turn to dust? Does the fault lie entirely with the user and their settings? Did the developer advertise fake results? Or is there some little known cosmic law that says that as soon as a trading system is automated, the market will turn around to prevent it from working?

Sounds crazy I know but I’ve wondered about it sometimes and perhaps you have too.

But really I don’t think it is because of any of those reasons. Maybe I will be hammered for this but here’s what I think really happens …

This is how a forex robot usually comes into existence: forex experts take a system that has been working for them (or devise a new one and backtest it), pay a software developer to turn it into a robot, and then to recoup the expense of the software and more besides, they market it to people like you and me.

The critical question comes in the very first step. If the system has been working for the expert for a good long time, great. But often they move much too fast. They depend more or less on backtesting. They know that new robots always sell well, so they are sure to cover the cost of the programming, so there is really no risk in them giving it to a programmer the minute they dream up something that backtests pretty well. They may not wait for live test results.

So they go ahead and create a new forex currency trading system. Then of course they need to sell it. Possibly they might do a little live testing, but it would be risky! It might make a loss. They wouldn’t lie about the results so maybe it would be better not to test it live, but release it right now. People believe what they read and too many of them will buy on the backtest results alone. Quick! the developer thinks, Let’s get it out there now while it still looks like it works!

So what’s wrong with backtesting? Nothing, if you believe that its results in the future will mirror past results. But wait, isn’t that the first thing you see in the fine print on all investment documents? “Past results are not a guarantee of future performance …”

Take a simple example. You know that the odds of winning on black in roulette are just under 50%, don’t you? The zero makes it less. I think it is around 48.5%. But probability theory says that if you considered a few hundred spins you would probably not get exactly that many blacks. You might have 51% black for example.

So what if you did that, took those results and said, Wow, 51% black in backtests! Cool, so now I will develop a robot that always bets on black …

It would be sure to lose in the long term.

Of course the currency trading market is more involved than a roulette wheel, but even so I believe that is basically what developers do if they build a forex automatic trading system based on past results. And often, I think that is why they don’t work.

I am not saying don’t use forex robots, not at all. A forex robot can be a wonderful tool.

I am only asking you to consider how they have been tested. Don’t grab the latest forex robot the minute it is launched. Wait a few weeks at least, check the forums and see how other people like you get along with new forex trading systems before you push your money into the developer’s greedy hands.

Jason Cline writes articles on automatic forex trading systems and the foreign exchange market for many internet sites. Discover his opinion of the top selling FAP Turbo in his FAP Turbo review at www.automatedeasyforexsystem.com