Futures trading is all about trading Futures Contracts. Just what is a Futures Contract and how does it trade? A Futures Contract, also known as a “Forward” Contract, or even a cash forward sale, is a contract between a buyer interested in a specific product, and a seller intent on supplying the product on a future date for a specified price. Futures Contracts are formal agreements, obligating both the buyer and seller. Futures Trading is known as a zero sum game. Every dollar made by the buyer is a loss to the seller and vice versa. Prices that are too high or too low…either the buyer or the seller profits, but at the expense of the other. For example, if soy prices rise, the farmer benefits but the soy milk manufacturer suffers. If soy prices fall, the farmer suffers, but the soy milk manufacturer’s bottom line does better.
Futures trading takes place in two different ways. Commodities are traded at a Futures exchange, on the floor like at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where there are open outcry pits. But Futures trading can also be done “electronically,” with an internet connection, where individual investors place their buy and sell orders straight from their desktop trading platforms, like Tradestation.
There are 2 types of Futures traders: hedgers and speculators. A trader who is a hedger would be a farmer, manufacturer, importer, or exporter. Hedgers create futures positions for the purpose of reducing the risk that the price of their commodity may fall. For example, a soy farmer knows his crop will be harvested in August. He negotiates a soy futures contract before the harvest at the current price in July for delivery in September, after the harvest. In July, the price of soy is high because of limited supply. Should the price of soy fall in September (when the contract comes due), because of a bumper crop, the farmers’ price is already protected. Of coarse, the farmer is taking a risk. Should there be no bumper crop in September, the price of soy would rise even further but the farmer is already be obligated to deliver soy at the price negotiated in July. He would lose the additional profit. In September there could be a bumper crop and the price of soy is lower than his July price. In this case he wins.
Speculators want to be trading Futures because they want to gain a profit, They do not have a commodity to protect. Speculators actually embrace the majority of traders in almost every market. Speculators are readily positioned to assume risk. They expect to buy low and sell high by going long. They also expect to sell high and later buy back low, when they go short. As an example, say the oats speculator knows that there has been a drought and oats will be in limited supply in September. The speculator is happy to buy oats Futures contracts in May at the current price. He is wagering that the price of oats will soar and he will make a small fortune in September after the harvest. Speculators give the Futures Market the liquidity needed to offset the hedger’s contracts. Without speculators, there would be no traders to accept the risk of the hedger’s contracts. As in the example above, the farmer sells the oats to the speculator in May for the current price. The speculator assumes risk, hoping that by September, the expiry date, the price of oats has risen back up and he can make a profit at the farmer’s expense. What he never wants to happen is that in September, the price of oats goes down, meaning that he paid too much in June, as he would be the loser.
Prior to organized Futures exchanges, like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Futures trading was a far more risky proposition. Contracts were drafted between one farmer and one speculator, and signed wherever the farmer happened to be selling his produce, for example, in farmers markets. There were a lot of problems with these personal contracts. First and foremost, either the farmer or the speculator was allowed to default on the contract. Who would enforce payment or delivery? If the speculator was going to lose his shirt, he would not complete his side of the contract. If the farmer realized that the price of pork bellies had risen dramatically, he would default and sell the pork bellies in the open market. Since these contracts were drafted between 2 parties, the speculator could not sell his contract to another speculator. Here’s another problem…there was no one who would certify the quality of the delivery. Farmers could fill their side of the contract with lower grade pork bellies, and the speculator could not do much about it.
But since organizing exchanges, the job of the exchange became to validate quality, delivery and payment. Exchanges regulations were enacted to require good-faith money with a third party to certify contract performance, thereby reducing the number of contract defaults. Exchanges were finally able to ensure standardized contracts, stipulating each contract term, like commodity product grades and delivery dates.
With the coming of organized exchanges, Futures trading has now gone far beyond just buying and selling of commodity contracts like wheat, rice, corn, and soy. Today, there are futures contracts available for many asset classes, including treasuries, energies, equities, and currencies. Futures are an asset class called “derivatives.” A derivative is a security whose price is derived from one or more underlying assets. For example, the S&P 500 Futures Contract has as its underlying asset — the New York Stock Exchange’s (NYSE) S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index is one of the most actively monitored equity indexes worldwide. The index is comprised of the top 500 well recognized stocks traded on the NYSE. Here’s the problem with the S&P index, however…you cannot trade the Index. The CME created the S&P 500 Futures Contract that you can trade. And in the case of the S&P 500 Futures Contract, when the value of the S&P 500 Index appreciates, the S&P 500 Futures Contract appreciates with it and vice versa.
Now, Futures can also have a currency index as its underlying asset. For individual investors, the Currency Futures Market is designed for the small number of contracts that individual investors intend to trade. With Currency Futures, individual investors can trade the exact same currencies that are being traded in the Forex market, but trade on the CME.
Shadowtraders specialty is in training individual investors how to be Trading Futures. Most of the other Futures education companies can only train investors in trading the S&P 500 Futures Contract, and in particular, the Emini, earmarked towards individual traders. Shadowtraders is much more interested in presenting to its clients a variety of different Futures, including energies, treasuries, currencies, etc. We trade many assets, all of which have liquidity and volatility. For example, we know the days of the week that a particular Future trades, the times of day it is easiest to trade, how many contracts are traded for that, whether or not you can even trade it, etc. That is Shadowtraders expertise.
If you are tired of just trading the S&P 500 Emini, or you are new at the Futures trading game and want to find out more, attend a Shadowtraders Webinar on Monday nights.
Barbara Cohen has been a professional day trader for over 10 years and is the CIO of Shadowtraders. She has trained hundreds of students to trade the Futures Market with Shadowtraders trading strategies. Before you purchase any trading strategies, make sure you attend Shadowtraders Monday Night Webinar, and hosted by Barbara Cohen
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