Tag Archives: Day Trading

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Trading Interest Rate Futures And Knowing The Yield Curve

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Interest rates play a pivotal role in all financial markets. No matter what market you trade whether it is stocks, forex, futures, options, ETFs, commodities, bonds etc, you need to keep an eye on the interest rates. A yield curve is a representation on the graph that compares the entire spectrum on interest rates available to investors.

When you look at a Yield Curve these interest rates are plotted on the vertical axis with the time to maturity of these financial instruments on the horizontal axis. There can be three different shapes of a Yield Curve. The Normal Curve, The Flat Curve and the Inverted Curve. Now as said before there are two types of interest rates in the economy; short term and long term. The return offered on the Treasury Bills is the short term interest rate while the return offered on the Treasury Notes and Bonds are long term interest rates. Let’s discuss these three different shapes now. On the Normal Curve, the short term interest rates are lower than the longer term interest rates as investors need a premium to invest long term. A Normal Curve represents normal economic activity where investors get rewarded for investing long term in the form of a higher long term interest rate on these financial instruments in the shape of a premium over the short term interest rates.

When you find the Yield Curve to be Flat, it means that all the interest rates in the economy are equal. What this indicates is that economic activity is slowing down. Now, most of the time you will come accross the Normal Yield Curve. But sometimes, you will find the Yield Curve to be Flat.

An Inverted Yield Curve is a leading indicator of an economy doing down into a recession. When there is a financial crisis like that happened in the early part of 2008, you will find the Yield Curve to be Inverted. Investors are shying away from investing in long term projects in the economy. When the economy starts to go into a recession, you will suddenly find an Inverted Yield Curve. On an Inverted Yield Curve, the longer term interest rates are lower than the short term interest rates.What this mean is that the economy is slowing down and investors are reluctant to invest long term thinking it to be risky.

Eurodollars have a highly liquid market meaning you can get in and get out without paying a large spread due to the large market in them. They also have less volatility. However, you can also trade the 10 year Treasury Notes (T Notes) and the Treasury Bonds (T Bond) that have a maturity period of higher than 10 years. However, T Notes and T Bonds have a much higher volatility as compared to Eurodollars.You can also trade options on these interest rate futures contracts. Some people trade the volatility. So, you have to know what you want before you trade these instruments! Many investors and traders trade interest rates by investing in Eurodollars. Eurodollars are short term futures contracts that have a low margin requirement meaning retail traders and investors can also trade Eurodollars.

Now, when you trade these interest rate futures contracts, you need to keep an eye on the market constantly. Futures trading can be risky and in a matter of few minutes you might get wiped out in the market and get a margin call from your broker. Trading interest rate futures is no different than trading anyother futures contract. If you haven’t traded futures before, a good idea would be to first paper trade these contracts for at least two months so that you get a feel of how these futures contracts gets traded and how the market behaves!

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A Quick Look At Forex Killer

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There are so many foreign exchange software available in the internet right now and all of them always claim that they can help create accurate bets.

It is because of these claims that have made these softwares garner such a bad reputation.

Trading systems work by generating trading signals so that a trader can get the most profits. The importance of these signals is that they tell the trader which place to bet in order to get the most returns on one’s investment.

Trading systems are simply a must for every trader.

A popular foreign exchange trading system is the Forex Killer. Forex Killer was designed by a man named Andreas Kirchberger. Forex Killer has be recognized as an efficient trading system and has even earned the name “expert adviser”.

In purchasing a copy of Forex Killer, you will also be given a software manual, other training materials and $50 trading deposit.

What Forex Killer basically claims to do is to generate different trading signals within the day. What differentiates Forex Killer from other systems is that the latter only sends these signals and this can take quite long. The only thing that the trader has to do is to supply the missing information in order for the software to generate the signals.

There are so many perks with using Forex Killer for your day trading. Basically, it is guaranteed to work in different platforms and can also be used with any broker from any country.

It follows then that it can be used to trade in any currency and any financial market. The convenience of this software comes from the fact that it can be used anywhere.

But then, Forex Killer also has a bad side to it. It is pretty unanimous that Forex Killer is an efficient trading system, the only thing that makes people turn against Forex Killer is the complexity in using the program.

Most people agree that Forex Killer generates killer signals but it’s the operating part that can be a problem. Nonetheless, the customer service team of Forex Killer, including Kirchberger, is always there to entertain queries about the software.

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Candlestick Patterns-Bullish Necklines, the Bearish Meeting Lines And the Bearish Piercing Line

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Bullish necklines candlestick pattern is a two stick trend confirming pattern. When this pattern appears during the uptrend, it is a signal that the uptrend is still in force and is expected to continue for sometime in the future. Now, there are two type of neckline patterns, the in neck and the out neck pattern.

On the first day, there will be a long bullish candle indicating that heavy buying took place during the day. On the second day or what you call the signal day, there will be a bearish candle that can be long or short with a closing price almost close to the first day. Necklines pattern is a two stick pattern. What this means is that it takes two days on the daily chart for this pattern to form.

Now,there can be two types of Neckline Patterns depending on the closing prices on the signal and the setup days. If the closing price on the signal day is almost near the closing price on the setup day, it is an On Neck Pattern. In case, if the closing price on the first day is little lower than the closing price on the signal day, it is a In Neck Pattern.

You might be thinking that this is not much of a difference. Well, this is true but nevertheless, you should be aware of this slight difference between the In Neck and the On Neck Patterns. Both these patterns are telling the same thing that the uptrend is going to continue in the near future. So even if you are not able to differentiate between the In Neck and the On Neck, don’t worry much. You must at least be able to identify that a Neckline Pattern has been formed.

Now, let’s talk about a trend reversal candlestick pattern; The Bearish Meeting Line. On the first day or what you call the setup day, you will find a long bullish candle.What this means is that heavy buying took place throughout the day. On the second day or what you call the signal day, you will find a gap opening. This is a Bearish Meeting Line Trend Reversal Pattern. What is means is that the trend is about to reverse itself soon! This gap entices the sellers to start selling that continues throughout the day. This will result in a long bearish candle on the second or what you call the signal day. This long bearish candle should have a close very near the open of the low of the day as well as the close should be very near to the close on the first or what you call the setup day.

Another trend reversal pattern is the Bearish Piercing Ling Pattern. This candlestick pattern is formed when on the first or the setup day, a bullish long candle is formed meaning that the bulls have been in control of the market throughout the day. The second day or what you call the signal day, there will be a bearish candle formed. This means that on the second day or what you call the signal day, the sellers started selling pushing the price action down past the opening price to the midpoint of the first day candle. This bearish candle should have an opening higher than the first day’s high.

When this Bearish Piercing Line Candlestick Pattern is formed, it means that the price action has lost it’s momentum. This pattern usually occurs in the last stages of an uptrend and when it happens, it means that the trend is about to reverse itself.

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Stock Trading

Stock Market Day Trading System – Helpful Tips

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If you want to be a day trader, but you are afraid of being a day tripper and losing your shirt? Just use some Artificial Intelligence to help you do the right trade.

A day trader is a stock trader who holds a position with a stock for only a very limited time – sometimes merely several minutes – before he makes a trade with that stock. People who practice this are called day traders because most of their positions are opened, and closed, in the same trading day. “Buy and hold” strategies are not for them.

Day trading is controversial to say the least, and the fact is that over 90% of day traders lose money instead of making it. The typical day trader is seen as little more than a gambler in a casino. Yet, as we all know, there are some gamblers who are professionals – and millionaires. They must know something that few other gamblers know. If a day trader is to be successful, he too must know something that few others know.

Day traders need to have their timing perfect, which brings about the issue of market timing. This is where the investor attempts to make a prediction on the direction that the market will take. There is electronic data that will help to determine this, and there are even technical indicators. These will tell you when to sell, and when to buy.

There are a lot of investors out there who are of the opinion that the market cannot be timed or predicted. It is just too…unpredictable for lack of a better term. Fortunately there are many traders out there who simply do not agree, and they try to time the market anyway. Are they right? Well, maybe, even though 90% of all day traders lose money.

Risk goes with the territory in active day trading. Then you have timing risk, which is the margin of error that a trader faces and deals with when they buy a certain stock. There is always a chance they they will do something wrong, and will not make as much money as possible on a given trade.

You know what they say. It’s better to “have time in the market than to time the market”. There have been many failures in market timing, which has led to this attitude.

In spite of the deck being stacked against them, day traders continue trying to make their fortune their way. Most lose money…but, they sense one thing that happens to be true: if the market is able to be timed correctly, they will make a killing. It’s all a matter of figuring out how to time it. If they could do that, they would have that special knowledge that we mentioned above. But is this possible?

It is possible if they use one special tool – a day trading program. These artificial intelligence (AI) programs have been around in the investment world since even before the Internet. They have become far more advanced in the last almost 20 years; and the Internet has made it possible for them to be used by many more people. Institutional money managers have used day trading robots to help them for many years, and those managers who make the best use of them are among the most successful.

Such AI programs have the ability to learn, and learn well from timing mistakes that have been made in the past. These programs are capable of learning like humans, but they have a one huge advantage over humans. They do not require sleep, and they do not become distracted. All they need to do is learn, and they do this very well.

Being a trader, you can program your strategy parameters into the robot, and then your robot will tell you exactly how well they were doing. Once you learn whether or not your strategies are working, you can make changes to the program. This is one of the joys of a day trading robot.

Day trading robots are very fast. They can move ten times faster than a human ever will, and their orders can be placed immediately. A human cannot do this by any means. In fact, there is quite a bit of lag when a human being tries to place an order which can lead to lost sales.

So, for the day trader, the day trading robot is indispensable. There is no good reason to do this kind of trading without the all-important help of AI. But with it, making a fortune in day trading is possible.

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Forex Trading

Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations

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A trading system might consist of a few indicators and a number of rules that tell when to enter the trade and when to exit the trade. Trading system is considered to be proven and tested if there is some date that supports its performance under live market trading conditions. However, it might not be possible to test a trading system quickly under live trading conditions. To overcome such problems, backtesting has been developed. Backtesting is done with the use of a software.

For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.

There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions. So backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!

What we can say is that no two trades are exactly alike. So when you look at back testing results, you should look at them with scepticism. But it doesn’t mean that backtesting is entirely useless!

Some markets are highly seasonal. For example, if you are a commodity trader and tend to trade agricultural commodities like the grain, seed or the livestock, these have a fixed planting and harvesting cycles.

For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!

US Dollar Index trendlines might last for months to years. In other markets too backtesting can help you figure out important trends that lasts for last times. Backtesting can help you figure out how long a trend might last in a particular market.

But to tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions. There is no substitute for live trading results!

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