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Stock Market Share Prices Rise Beautifully, But Fall Dramatically- Why?

Stock Market Share Prices Rise Beautifully, But Fall Dramatically- Why?

It would be real easy if share prices just carried on rising, oh what a sweet time it would be, but I am sure investors would have no interest in the industry if this was the case, they would simply throw as much money in as they could and walk away, knowing that their investment would continually increase without any intervention at all!

But what makes stock market trading so appealing, is the chase! Not knowing if your investment is going to rise or fall, trying to determine what is going to happen and ultimately discovering if you were right or wrong.

So, what actually makes the stock and shares rise and fall?

The obvious reason is the share price will go up if more people want to buy than sell and the share price will fall if more people want to sell than buy.

More people want to buy if a particular companies earnings are high, people want to sell if the earnings are low. This is the most obvious area to look at for investors.

But when you look deeper into why more people buy or sell, is when things can get a little complicated and far reaching. Something (unrelated to chocolate) that happens in another country can cause the price of chocolate to rise on the other side of the world!

I would be here all day if I listed everything that can cause a rise or fall in share prices, but here are a few. Public opinion, inflation, interest rates, fuel prices, food prices, war, weather, etc.

We could go on and on, this is why there are people who study the world economies and what is going on across the planet, if they can predict what’s going to happen early, then they can make some very clever investment decisions.

The butterfly effect really comes into play here, an event happening somewhere can have huge results thousands of miles away and indeed all over the world, an example of this is war.

So let’s look at the terrible thing that is war! Nearly everywhere is looking good, economies are thriving and steadily growing, then suddenly a war breaks out, it just so happens that where the war breaks out, is where the world gets most of its oil, suddenly people, cannot access the oil, so the oil companies increase the price on the oil that they do have in stock, (although the main increase in the crude oil prices is the explosive development of the United States of America, India and China).

A spike in oil prices will increase fuel prices, car prices, clothing, food and many more. This will then push inflation upwards, next come an interest rate rise! This presses the government to raise interest rates and we have the example above all over again.

So, stock market share prices are affected by many factors that are hard to predict. But if you study the markets closely, you can start to pick out the trends and start to understand when and where to invest.

There are many other elements that come into play, like foreign currency rates, but hopefully this article will give you a quick overview of what causes the stock market share prices to rise and fall.

When looking to learn stock market share prices, continual study is needed, there are shortcuts which involve automation, but ones education in this industry is SO important.

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Is China Stock Market Ready to Fall?

Is China Stock Market Ready to Fall?

Do you know how to say in Chinese “irrational exuberance,” or how about in Russian… ok… maybe you know how to say in Hindi..ok… I am sure you can say it Portuguese? Maybe we might not need to …Investors and Hedge funds have been throwing money at these markets for years… Why not…Look at the amazing moves. However many local investors of these markets are very young and mostly have never experienced a bear market. How many of us investors went through the tech bubble or this fun real estate blowup. Yet so many of us have been investing in the BRIC ( Brazil –Russia-India- China) ETFs again without even thinking what we might lose. I really do not need to explain to you about the risks… maybe you can tell me about all the money you have made. I am not even going to stress the banking crisis …or how about the residential home crisis… or even mention the SIV crisis. For those of you not aware of the SIV crisis, it is where numerous US and Non US banking institutions in order to put their toxic defaulted paper off their books. I am not suggesting to any degree you exit your long positions on the BRIC ETFs… You know what you are doing; You have a plan. You know exactly when to exit your position. How many of you remember Japan of the late 1980s. At 25,000 was the Japanese stock market overvalued… or how about at 30,000…or even 35,000…until peaking at 39,000 and still 18 years later not even at half of that. When the US stock of 1929 crashed it took almost 25 long hard years to get back to those levels. I have never met anyone who could call a top to a parabolic move. That is what is happening currently in the BRIC ETFs. Consider this on the Indian Stock Market; the journey from 19,000 to 20,000 points took 11 trading sessions and an increase of just 5.25%, whereas back in 1992, the journey from 3,000 to 4,000 took 22 trading sessions and an increase of 33.33%. We can go look at each component of each BRIC market. But what will that tell us. Human nature never changes. It does not matter if we are Brazilian, Russians, Indians or Chinese or American the basic attributes of humanity become very clear. FEAR AND GREED! I am very confident that all of us have heard the fantastic growth stories that are prevalent in the BRIC markets and one needs to take a long term perspective while investing. Investing in the stock market is not a one-day event. That would amount to gambling and we are not gamblers (?). In order for long term success one needs to have an exact plan as to when to purchase and when to exit as well as a plan to invest consistently over a long period of time. There is no right time to enter the market. Every day is the right day. If you start investing in the stock market, you should be committed to be in the market for a long time. One might construe this post as double cheeked. However what I would like to stress is that one needs a plan regardless if they consider themselves an investor or a trader. No one has a crystal ball where any market is headed However a possibly significant sign is at hand on the BRIC markets. On a technical basis the chart is showing a MAJOR DIVERGENCE many times this has been a forebear of a major trend in change. There are too many issues to mention that the risks of investing in the BRIC ETFs are greatly enhanced. One needs a plan and more importantly the mental discipline to follow the plan. Good Luck trading. Currently we are not long nor short any of the BRIC ETFs but looking to go short.

Andrew Abraham

Andrabr9@gmail.com

http://capitalinvestor1836.blogspot.com/

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