An optimist looks at a glass of water and says that it is half full; a pessimist looks at the same glass of water and asserts that it is half empty; a forex trader looks at it and ponders for a while then concludes that the glass is twice as big as it should be. Forex traders cover all the bases, they looks at charts from all angles and account for every possibility then make decisions based on timely and accurate information. The risks involved in forex trading are too high to entertain carelessness and the losses one can encounter are equally absolute.

Here are a few tips on retracement, reversals and the tools used – The famous Fibonacci numbers. Ever watched LOST, the movie series by ABC? Where the characters had to drudgingly enter seemingly random numbers into a computer or endure the consequences of some cataclysmic event if they didn’t? Sorry I digress I know, but if you have watched it the Fibonacci numbers are a similar sequence of numbers; I shan’t bore you with its history but all you need to know is that they are a numbered recursive sequence where the next number is the sum of the previous two (example 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8…etc). Now I know what you are thinking, so what right? The fascinating thing about these numbers is their natural occurrence in everyday things and in nature and how amazingly applicable these numbers are in technical analysis.

Depending on the chart you use (hourly or daily chart for a particular currency pair), you can find the support, and retracement levels by drawing a linear trend line graph from the most recent high to the most recent low. A retracement level is the point where the currency pair will continue its previous trend before continuing with its current trend. Hope I didn’t lose you there, but to put it even simpler if the number 5 was a retracement level and I asked you to count to 10 meaning the trend is upwards when you reach the number 5 you would ‘retrace’ i.e. go back to 4 maybe 3 maybe even 2 before continuing upwards again towards the number 10. Now say I didn’t tell you when to retrace, but you know at some point between 1 and 10 you have to, how would you do it? That’s right Fibonacci numbers.

Having got your trend line drawn, you then divide the vertical distance of the two extremities by the key Fibonacci ratios which are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. Where these points lay on the x-axis of your chart, is where your retracement levels are. I missed out the 100% ratio; this is known as the resistance level, or the level where the market does not expect the currency pair to exceed within a particular time and all things constant.

Most traders pay more attention to the 61.8% support level, but in general the reason why Fibonacci numbers are such good indicators of trend change is because millions of forex traders rely on them as pointers, thus if for whatever reason a currency pair goes against the support or breaks a resistance level, rest assured that you will see huge activity on the market at just that instant.

As a parting note, I have stared at my charts for minutes on end, watching market indecision as the market decides which way to swing after a resistance level was broken; it is at that moment that I take big positions as the opportunity to profit is tremendous. I hope these pointers have introduced you to the concepts of retracement, but you can always use one of the many free forex charts on the internet to try it out for yourself; also using a practice account you can learn just when to buy and when to sell.

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When you trade in the forex market without strict rules to manage your cash-flow, you are not trading but in fact gambling. From time to time traders may fall into the trap of buying or selling way too much of a currency pair and risking way too much of the money in their accounts based solely on hunches, also known as ‘feelings’; but this is a sure way to accelerate disappointment in the market. When you start out as a beginning trader it is important to devise a method of calculating how much risk (by default) you would be willing to risk on any position.

Money management rules such as the 2 percent rule are designed to protect us in the long run. You are probably wondering how, and I will explain that in a moment, but first an example. Case and point, Mark decides to make only 10 trades a month, he is what you would call a conservative trader. Mark has a simple rule that stipulates that if he makes four consecutive losses in a row he would pull out of the market until the next month; and for every profitable position he closes, he will risk only a third of his profit in the next trade that he makes; fairly simple rule and very effective in the long run in ensuring that his gains remain consistent.

So what rule can you apply in your trading strategy or how should you go about managing risk? Choosing the right means to protect your capital depends a lot on your style of trading, your account size and even your own personal tolerance for market speculation.

While using a reduced lot size is a good way to start, it will not be very helpful if you have a number of open lots. You must understand relationship between the currency pairs of the forex market; if for example you were to make a short trade on GBP/USD and a long trade on USD/JPY, you are unduly exposing yourself twice to the USD. This equates to having 2 lots of USD in a long position. If the USD price drops, you would lose…twice! Try to keep the lot numbers to a minimum and this is especially encouraged for beginning traders. You can also consider placing only 2 percent of your forex account at risk as mentioned earlier for any opened position, a common technique used by many traders.

Here is an example I hope will show you practically and in a different angle what we have covered here today. With a newly opened forex account 1000 dollars, I risk only 2 percent of that in every trade that means each position is worth 20 dollars of my account. I plan to have only 10 trades a week with a target of 100 dollars profit after all trades; this means I would have to endure the risk of losing 10 trades to suffer a maximum of a 100 dollar loss on my account. Naturally, I do not expect to lose 10 trades consecutively nor lose over 100 dollars in my account, and as fate would have it, I make 6 winning trades but lose 4. The following week I use the gains of my previous trades as risk and consistently repeat this cycle. This example shows you how you can keep your capital safe, and work more on growing your profits and choosing winning trades, I how you found these tips informative.

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