Technical analysis video review of the stock market and individual stocks for Friday June 1, 2007 including; Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (NASDAQ:QQQQ), S&P 500 Index (AMEX:SPY), Semiconductor holdrs (AMEX:SMH), ishares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:IWM), Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ALXN), Tetra Tech, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:TTEK), Presstek, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:PRST) Cepheid (Public, NASDAQ:CPHD) and Geron Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:GERN). Trend analysis for daytraders and swingtraders of stocks and options. Trading stocks involves risk; this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.
Tag Archives: options
Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations
A trading system might consist of a few indicators and a number of rules that tell when to enter the trade and when to exit the trade. Trading system is considered to be proven and tested if there is some date that supports its performance under live market trading conditions. However, it might not be possible to test a trading system quickly under live trading conditions. To overcome such problems, backtesting has been developed. Backtesting is done with the use of a software.
For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.
There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions. So backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!
What we can say is that no two trades are exactly alike. So when you look at back testing results, you should look at them with scepticism. But it doesn’t mean that backtesting is entirely useless!
Some markets are highly seasonal. For example, if you are a commodity trader and tend to trade agricultural commodities like the grain, seed or the livestock, these have a fixed planting and harvesting cycles.
For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!
US Dollar Index trendlines might last for months to years. In other markets too backtesting can help you figure out important trends that lasts for last times. Backtesting can help you figure out how long a trend might last in a particular market.
But to tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions. There is no substitute for live trading results!
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Harami And The Harami Cross Candlestick Patterns Can Make You Rich!
Candlestick charting is a very powerful tool in the trading arsenal of any trader. There are many candlestick patterns that can signal the continuation of a trend or the reversal of a trend. Some candlestick patterns are simple like the single stick patterns. While other candlestick patterns are complex like the two stick or the three stick patterns. A Harami pattern is a two stick pattern that takes two days to form on a daily chart. It is can bullish as well as bearish. A Harami is formed when the first day candle is longer than the second day candle.
A bullish Harami candlestick pattern is formed when the first day candle is bearish. Rather the first day is very bearish and occurs on a downtrend. But on the second day, the bulls come into action and try to move the prices higher. But bulls are not very successful. The second day close is still lower than the first day open and the first day’s high is never surpassed. However, the second day is a signal that the bulls have started to take the stand and stop the current downtrend.
The open is higher than the close of the last day on the signal day. However, the bulls close the day higher than the open.On the second day when the Harami is formed, the bears are still slightly ahead of the bulls at the start of trading.
Bulls and bears are always fighting with each other for the control of the market. When a bullish Harami is formed what this means is that the bulls are still cautious about their success and fear that the bears might return to take the prices lower again. However, when this does not happen, it gives confidence to the bulls encouraging more buying in the market and the reversal of the trend.
What this means is that you need to confirm it with the price action on the following day. Now, like most of the candlestick patterns, a Harami can fail. Always place the stop loss first when you trade. When you spot a Harami, place the stop loss near the open of the second day.
Harami has a few variations. In the Bullish Harami Cross Pattern, the first day is bearish. On the second day or what you call the signal day, you will find a bullish Doji formed with an open higher than the close of the first day and a close lower than the open of the first day. Bullish Harami Cross is not a frequent pattern but when it does appear, it means an abrupt trend reversal.
When a bearish Harami is formed what this indicates is that bears have taken hold of the market now and are about to push the prices down signalling a downtrend is about to start! The bearish Harami is similar to a bullish Harami. It is formed in an uptrend. The first day is a usual bullish candle that forms in an uptrend. The second day candle is a bearish candle. It’s open is lower than the close of the first day. And it’s close is higher than the open of the first day.
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Momentum Investing Shocking Secrets
There is a difference between trading and investing. Trading is always short term while investing is long term. The time horizon in trading can be as short as a few minutes to a few days to a few weeks. Whereas in investing, the time horizon can be months to years. Many people day trade or swing trade stocks, currencies, futures, options, ETFs, commodities or other markets. In day trading, a trader opens a position and closes it in the same day making a quick profit. In swing trading, a trader tries to ride a trend in the market as long as it lasts. On the other hand, an investor is least pushed about the short term swings in the market. He or she has a long term time horizon like a few months to even a few years. This long time horizon matches their investment and financial goals!
An investor might have to wait for a long time before realizing a return on his or her investment. Many investors can learn a few tricks from day traders that can help them make a quick profit in a matter of days orn weeks instead of months or years. Now a company’s stock may have a good long term prospects supported by strong fundamentals. But the stock may stay still for a long time before it catches the attention of the media and the investing public before it’s price get’s bid up.
Many investors when they fall in love with their investments on the long run forget this cardinal rule of trading that you have to cut your losses. Market least care who you are and how long you have been in it.There is a general problem with so many investors. They fall in love with their investment after doing so much research and committing so much time for the position to work. Now, day traders are always hit and run types. They have developed an innate sense of discipline among themselves that teaches them when to commit money to a trade and when to cut and run.
However, if too many investors start practicing momentum investing, it sometimes leads to bubbles like the tech bubble that happened at the end of 1990s. Now, when doing momentum investing, you need to also do some fundamental research behind the company. As most of the momentum investing done during the dot com bubble was on hearsay without being supported by any strong fundamentals!
One of the tricks that you can learn from day traders is momentum investing. In momentum investing, you look for securities that are expected to go up in prices accompanied by the underlying momentum. When investing, you try to buy low and sell high. In momentum investing, you buy high and sell even higher!
Now, when the price of a stock or security increases because of strong demand, it is said to have momentum behind it. When, there is momentum behind a security, it means that it’s price will continue to icnrease as long as it has got momentum. This way by investing in stocks having momentum behind them, you avoid the risk of getting stuck in stocks that might not move for months and months.
Now, when doing momentum investing, you need to also do some fundamental research behind the company. As most of the momentum investing done during the dot com bubble was on hearsay without being supported by any strong fundamentals! However, if too many investors start practicing momentum investing, it sometimes leads to bubbles like the tech bubble that happened at the end of 1990s.
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ETF Options Investing Secrets
Index Options and ETF Options both provide you with an opportunity to use options strategies on a group of underlying stocks. However, there are some major difference between the Index Options and the ETF Options.
ETF Options are settled with the underlying instruments that is shares of ETFs. This gives you the chance to use various combination strategies with ETF Options that you cannot normally use with Index Options.Now trading ETF Options is somewhat different than trading Index Options. Though both track almost similar indexes but Index Options are settled in cash at expiry.
Now when you are trading index options or ETF options both of them get affected by the dividend payments on the underlying stocks. You need to take this fact into account when calculating the values of puts and calls with an Options Calculator otherwise your investment returns may not be what you have been anticipating.
As said before, since ETF Options get settled with ETF shares, you can use the different options trading strategies on them unlike the Index Options that get settled in cash. This makes ETF Options a much superior instrument as compared to Index Options. If you have traded stock options before, trading ETF Options should not be difficult for you.
Protective Put is a famous options trading strategy that portfolio managers use to hedge their stock positions. Now when trading ETF Options, you can use the famous Protective Put Strategy by combining long ETF with a long put. This way you can hedge against the downside risk with a small increased cost to the ETF. A Protective Put will limit the downside risk to the put strike price.
Another options trading strategy is often used is the Covered Call. Covered means that you are covering the call with the stocks that you own and on which you have written the call. You can use a Covered Call on ETF. A Covered Call is formed by taking combining long ETF with a short call on that ETF. The short call will give you some income in the shape of a premium and reduce the cost of the position. This will also slightly reduce the risk of the position. But on the other hand, a covered call will limit the upside profit potential. Your max profit now will only be limited to the call strike price.
Another combination strategy that you can use with an ETF is forming a Collared Position. A Collared Position is formed with a long ETF and a long put combined with a short call. A Collared Position limits the limited but high risk to a limited risk only. The downside risk is now only limited to the put strike price. The premium paid in taking a long put position is offset somewhat by the premium that you get by writing a call.
Options trading is risky in the sense that it has both time volatility as well as price volatility. Now, many traders trade options without getting good options trading education. What you need to do is first paper trade these strategies and master them. This way you will learn how to deal with unexpected risk.
An important fact that you need to know is that not all ETFs have options written on them. This should not surprise you as there are many stocks that don’t have options written on them. Another important fact that you should know is that ETF Options are always American Style. American Style options can be excercised anytime before expiry. You can even trade LEAP Options on ETFs. LEAP Options are long term options having expiry of more than nine months to less than two and a half years.
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