Technical analysis video review of the stock market and individual stocks for Friday June 1, 2007 including; Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (NASDAQ:QQQQ), S&P 500 Index (AMEX:SPY), Semiconductor holdrs (AMEX:SMH), ishares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:IWM), Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ALXN), Tetra Tech, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:TTEK), Presstek, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:PRST) Cepheid (Public, NASDAQ:CPHD) and Geron Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:GERN). Trend analysis for daytraders and swingtraders of stocks and options. Trading stocks involves risk; this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.
Tag Archives: Stocks
Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations
A trading system might consist of a few indicators and a number of rules that tell when to enter the trade and when to exit the trade. Trading system is considered to be proven and tested if there is some date that supports its performance under live market trading conditions. However, it might not be possible to test a trading system quickly under live trading conditions. To overcome such problems, backtesting has been developed. Backtesting is done with the use of a software.
For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.
There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions. So backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!
What we can say is that no two trades are exactly alike. So when you look at back testing results, you should look at them with scepticism. But it doesn’t mean that backtesting is entirely useless!
Some markets are highly seasonal. For example, if you are a commodity trader and tend to trade agricultural commodities like the grain, seed or the livestock, these have a fixed planting and harvesting cycles.
For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!
US Dollar Index trendlines might last for months to years. In other markets too backtesting can help you figure out important trends that lasts for last times. Backtesting can help you figure out how long a trend might last in a particular market.
But to tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions. There is no substitute for live trading results!
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Great Penny Stocks Picks Advice
A great penny stocks list is your key to succeeding in your venture in stock trading. This list will contain stock options that you find interesting and have thoroughly researched. Most of the stocks on your list you probably won’t ever actually invest in. However, a great penny stocks list is full of different options which have been tracked over time.
You might follow a stock for months to a year before actually deciding to invest your money. By this point, the penny stock has become more of a sure thing rather than a gamble. Of course, every venture is still a risk but a great penny stocks list will help you increase your success. There are many different sites online which offer free lists of hot penny stocks. Generally, you shouldn’t trust these lists at all. Often, it is the stock’s company which releases the information. They do this in order to draw investors to the stock. This in turn inflates the price of the penny stock. Afterwards, the price drops back to its real worth and the investors lose a lot of money. Instead, you should find a firm which will email you great penny stock lists every day.
Don’t just trust the information you see and invest instantly. Take some time to do your research into the company. At the very least, you should be able to track down the company’s pink sheet. Time and experience will teach you to determine whether a penny stock list is offering you good advice or not but this is never possible without doing your research first.
For those people who are completely new to penny stocks, the whole experience can be very confusing. Keep in mind that penny stocks are very different than regular stocks and should be treated differently. Before you gamble with your money, it is better to seek professional help. Hire a full service broker to assist you in making a great penny stocks list.
Of course, this service will cost you quite a high commission fee. However, you should look at the price as an investment in knowledge which will pay off later. If you still want to go at it alone, try a test run of your penny stocks list first. Choose stocks to “invest” in but don’t actually put any money down. See if your self-made great penny stocks list turned out hot or not.
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