Game Idea Example being a Martingale strategy.
Casinos love action when they have the edge. Allow me to show you how they prevent you from getting an advantage. Then I'll show you where they'll enable you one. Then I will tie this into option dealing, showing you how it's possible to get an advantage and turn the edge into nice returns.
There are 2 types of games of chance; those with a memory and those without. Roulette (Wheel that spins with ball dropping into one of 38 possible numbers) and dice games are 1 or 2 examples of casino games that don?t have a memory. Each roll of the dice, each spin of the wheel is totally independent from any other. Like flipping coins, the last flip has no effect on the next. Card games, from the other viewpoint, have a memory. Once a card has been used, it's no longer there to use again. Not till the next shuffle.
The possible outcomes of a spin of the wheel or roll of the dice are always the same. The net Expected Value (EV) of the wager is up to the player. Make a dumb bet and you won't lose more frequently, but when you do win you will win less. Realizing that each spin of the Roulette wheel is independent from one another, many casinos now have an electronic board which shows the last 15 to 20 spins of the wheel. The casinos are helping gamblers with a ?system? Try and cost a bomb. These scoreboards have helped increase Roulette revenue. As a gambler, the only true advantage you have over the house is your selection of when and how much you bet. There are actually occasions when the benefit goes to the player not the casino. The reality is the casinos know it and they do their best to not let you have it.
Casinos frown on card counters. If they think you of having the ability to recognize a statistical advantage, they will throw you out. In actual fact they take you to the backroom, image you, tell you if you are caught on property again you will be arrested for criminal trespass and then they share your photo with the other casinos so they also can be on the look-out for you.
It only worsens if you try and use any electrical gadget like a P. C. or calculator. It’s against the law. The casinos and the Nevada State gaming commission understand what would occur if they permit you to get an edge. You’d win massive. But more importantly to them, they would lose enormous. Many gamblers know their only advantage is their decision process. How and when much to bet. Realizing they cannot find an edge in chance, they attempt to bet their way to success.
This tactic is fairly easy, when you lose double your bet on the next end result. If you're right, you won back what you lost and won what you were trying to win in the first instance. If double your bet again. So on and the like. At some point, if you can afford the price you will at last win. Here?s the math: Losing $2 means betting $4 on the subsequent end result. If you win you earned back the $2 lost and the $2 you tried to win in the first instance. If you lose this 2nd bet, now bet $8. If you win you earned $2 net, plus the $2 & $4 you lost formerly. If you lose this third bet, now bet $16. If you win you earned $2 net, and the $2, $4 & $8 you lost previously. Continue doubling you bet and at some point you need to win the original $2 you were after.
2 Problems; first you could glaringly run right out of cash. You would be broke. I don’t know I even have to tell you the second point, but here goes; table limits. The casinos know about betting systems. They'll do anything in their power to take away any possibility of you getting an edge. Well not all advantages. There are one or two games that the casino allows you an edge. They know it and you can know it. The difference between these games and the ones I've been describing is the player on the opposite side. I'm talking about sports betting and poker.
I will not talk at all about sports gambling apart from to make you know of the way in which the casinos make their money and how this could act as a metaphor to options dealing. I adore sports too much to minimize the game. Quickly, the point spread or the odds on a sporting occassion aren't based on chance, but on supply & demand. The house wants even action on either side; they just take a cut for making sure the winners get paid. Not only is sports gambling illegal around the country, even the casinos in Atlantic City are prohibited from offering it. Poker on the other hand is different. The state of California long ago decided poker wasn't a game of luck (which is prohibited in the state) but a game of skill. A legal game of ability, well as long as it’s held in a regulated and taxed environment. Perhaps in part because of cable tv and more precisely the miniscule cameras which show the cards of the players,. Poker is growing fast. However , I do not play poker. I might have no problem figuring out the odds on any draw. That?s straightforward maths. I don?t play for 2 reasons. I can’t bluff and I can?t tell when someone is bluffing.
The final analysis being while the probabilities have a continued the wager doesn't. Poker is more about gambling than probability. Don’t try a Martingale strategy at poker! You lose your chips fast. That type of system was designed for even money gambles! Vegas and casinos around the planet are extraordinarily different to the option exchanges. It may be starting to click with a small number of you; you understand we have an advantage in that we can use PCs to search for an edge, but it?s much more than the tools and group effort. But let me now attempt to tie in game theory to successful options trading.