If you have heard fund managers talk about the way they invest, you know a great many employ a top down approach. First, they decide how much of their portfolio to allocate to stocks and how much to allocate to bonds. At this point, they may also decide upon the relative mix of foreign and domestic securities. Next, they decide upon the industries to invest in. It is not until all these decisions have been made that they actually get down to analyzing any particular securities. If you think logically about this approach for but a moment, you will recognize how truly foolish it is.

A stock’s takings yield is the inverse of its P / E proportion. Hence a stock with a P / E proportion of twenty-five has a revenues yield of 4%, while a stock with a P / E ratio of eight has a revenues yield of 12.5%. In this manner, a low P / E stock is equivalent to a high yield bond.

Now, if these low P / E stocks had extraordinarily unsteady takings or carried a great amount of debt, the spread between the long bond yield and the takings yield of these stocks could be justified. Nevertheless many low P / E stocks basically have more steady takings than their high multiple family. Some do employ a good deal of debt. Still, inside latest memory, one could find a stock with a revenues yield of eight 12%, a dividend yield of 3- five percent, and literally no debt, despite some of the lowest bond yields in half a century. This situation could only come about if investors shopped for their bonds without also considering stocks. This makes about as much sense as purchasing a truck without also considering a vehicle or wagon.

All investments are finally money to cash operations. As such, they need to be judged by a single measure : the discounted cost of their future money flows. Because of this, a top down approach to investing is nonsensical. Beginning your search by first deciding on the kind of security or the industry is a general boss deciding on a left handed or right handed pitcher before assessing every individual player. In every case, the choice isn’t simply hasty ; it’s fake. Regardless of whether pitching left handed is inherently better, the general executive isn’t comparing apples and oranges ; he is comparing pitchers. Whatever inherent advantage or downside exists in a pitcher’s handedness can be reduced to an ultimate price ( e.g, run worth ). Because of this, a pitcher’s handedness is simply one factor ( among many ) to be considered, not a binding choice to be made. The same’s true of the kind of security. It is neither more required nor more logical for a stockholder to like all bonds over all stocks ( or all outlets over all banks ) than it is for a general chief to like all lefties over all righties. You need not decide whether stocks or bonds are tasty ; you need just establish whether a particular stock or bond is alluring. Likewise, you need not resolve whether the market is undervalued or unrealistically priced ; you need simply decide a particular stock is undervalued.

Clearly, the most prudent approach to investing is to evaluate each individual security in relation to all others, and only to consider the form of security insofar as it affects each individual evaluation. A top down approach to investing is an unnecessary hindrance. Some very smart investors have imposed it upon themselves and overcome it; but, there is no need for you to do the same.

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