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Forex Trading

Understanding the Basics of the Foreign Exchange Markets

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The exchange of different world currencies is what takes place in the Foreign Exchange markets. Sometimes referred to as the FX Markets or Forex Markets, they account for the highest volume of trading when compared to any other market. Nearly $4 trillion dollars changes hands daily on the Forex Markets.

The principle is easy enough to understand. In fact, any traveler has experienced it upon arrival in a foreign country. In order to obtain local currency, one must sell one currency and buy the other. FX traders operate on the same system, though on a much grander scale.

To take a closer look at FX Markets in action, it is useful to peruse the financial section of any newspaper. Where the currencies are listed, readers will notice a “bid” price listed along with an “ask” price. Since banks set the “ask” price, it will be slightly marked up in order to accommodate a transaction fee. If a person wished to sell the same currency, they would be offered the “bid” price by the bank, which is lower. The spread between these figures is one of the methods used by large banks to profit in Forex trading, which is a volume-dominated market.

In terms of investment strategies for FX Markets, there are several different ways to approach it. For investors who like to read more extended trends of a national currency, the goal is to find the direction early. On the other hand, there is a lot of money to be made in short speculation, and the key is to guess right while laying down the maximum amount possible.

Forex markets are not a common item in the typical private investment portfolio. Because the control is in the hands of the banks which set the spread between the bid and ask price, these banks get a price available only to the top players in the financial world. In fact, with all of the trading which takes place on a daily basis, nearly 80% is done by the world’s top ten in the banking industry. Deutsche Bank leads the way, with outfits like Barclay’s and JP Morgan close behind.

Speculation in the FX Markets is rampant. Hedge funds – known for the aggressive style of investment – have been a major force in FX since the mid-1990s. One of the advantages of such an aggressive style is the ability to counteract influence made on behalf of a currency by its government. While financial ministers may be able to control devaluation using a country’s central bank funds, investors can overwhelm a market with volume.

There are many factors which can have an effect on the strength of a country’s currency. Investors always look to government budget deficits and the ability to maintain surpluses. Inflation levels and GDP growth statistics are also vital information to FX investors, along with factors as diverse as unemployment levels. Political developments also play a major role.

An interesting feature of the FX is the fact that they never close between Monday and Friday. After the close of business in New York, traders can continue on in Europe and finally Asia before New York markets open once again in the morning.

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Forex Trading

Logic In Investment Strategies

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I’ve been trading stocks and forex all my life. One thing I gradually became aware of during this experience was that the strategies which make the most logical sense typically are the ones which work the best.

There are so many strategies I’ve tried, I have lost count. And there are at least as many which I’ve let go without trying. There are just too many. I found a quick fire way though which helps disregard the strategies which are useless, so you can trial the ones which are worth trialing. Its logic. Look at the logic of your trading strategy and see if there are holes in it. You’ll be amazed by the number of strategies with big logical holes.

Most strategies presented to you will make sense. They have to or you would disregard them as nonsense. This is not what I am talking about though. The concern discussed in this article is logical completeness. If a strategy does not cover all possible scenarios you may come across, it will not take long before you find one of those scenarios. And when you do find a scenario which is not covered by your strategy, all of a sudden you need to make decisions outside the strategy. You will probably be left scratching your head or guessing.

Personally I think that making decisions like this, decisions which are outside the logic of an investment or trading strategy, is gambling. Its not a good situation. Sure you may make money with this gamble, but you could lose it too. Its no different than blackjack. A robust and complete trading strategy should take these gambles away from you. There should be no guesses. You should just plan the trade and then trade the plan.

The other problem with this is that no matter what happens to your returns from that point, you will never know if it happened because the strategy worked or because of the guess you just made. This also can create problems as it must impact your confidence in the strategy. If your confidence is impacted, this may further cause you to divert from the strategy in other circumstances, exacerbating the problem.

So if you are thinking about trading a new strategy, short cut experiencing some pain and loss. Go through the logic of the strategy in a robust and thorough manner. Are there scenarios you can see, which the strategy possibly does not cover? If so, try and get answers for those scenarios. If you can’t get answers for them, personally, I’d avoid the strategy. Lets face it, going to the horse races is much more fun 🙂

And once you are happy with the logical analysis you have applied, don’t forget to dummy trade for a while too. In dummy trading you will probably find a number of scenarios you never thought of. This gives you the chance of ensuring the strategy deals appropriately with them too, without risking any money. Good luck.

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